Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Primary in season busy states begins three

Votersgotothepollstodayinindiana,northcarolinaandohioinoneofthebusiestdaysonthe2010primarycalendar.Thetri-statevotingalsowillinitiateafive-weekburstofelectionactivitythatwillsee23statesholdprimariesandthreestatesholdspecialhouseelections.Todaysreturnswillprovidetheclearestsigntodateofthemoodoftheelectoratesixmonthsbeforethemidtermelectionsaswellastestthecloutofthepoliticalestablishmentandthenationalpartiesthathavepromotedpreferredcandidatesinsomecontestedprimaries.Heresalookatkeyprimariestowatch:indianasenateoutoftheindianapoliticallimelightformorethanadecade,formersen.Dancoats(r)showedsomerustinhiscomebackcampaignfortheseatheusedtohold.Butheseemstohaveweatheredthestorm--atleastintherepublicanprimary--andgopofficialsthinkhewilloutpollformerrep.Johnhostettlerandstatesen.Marlinstutzman,whoarerunningasstrongerbearersoftheconservativebanner.Democratswillpointtoanunderwhelmingcoatswinasasignofweaknessamongconservativebasevoters,andtheyrehappywiththeirpresumptivenominee,rep.Bradellsworth,whowillbeformallynominatedlaterthismonth.House2nddistrictgopofficialsareconfidentthatstaterep.Jackiewalorskiwillconvincinglywinafour-candidateprimaryandsquareoffagainsttwo-termrep.Joedonnelly(d).3rddistrictrep.Marksouder,whohassometimesunderperformedinhisstronglyrepublican-leaning,fortwayne-baseddistrict,isvulnerabletoaprimarychallengefrombobthomas,awealthycardealerwhohasattackedthecongressmanforrenegingonaterm-limitspledgeandforhis2008votetostabilizethefinancialmarkets.Philtroyer,alawyerandformercongressionalaide,shouldalsopeeloffsomeoftheanti-soudervote.Sothecongressmanmaywinwithaplurality.4thdistrictthegopprimaryinthisrock-ribbedrepublicandistrictwillessentiallydetermineasuccessorforretiringrep.Stevebuyer(r).The13-candidateraceisheadlinedbyindianasecretaryofstatetoddrokitaandstatesen.Brandthershman,whoalsoisalongtimebuyeraide.5thdistrictrep.Danburton(r),whowasnearlydefeatedforrenominationinthe2008primary,probablywouldbeagonerifhehadoneopponentinsteadofsixinhisprimary.Burtonalmostcertainlywillwinlessthanamajorityofthevote,butmostpoliticalobserversthinktheanti-burtonvotewillbedividedsuchthatthecongressmanwillekeoutawin.Burtonsbest-fundedchallengersareformerstaterep.Lukemesserandstaterep.Mikemurphy.8thdistrictrepublicanofficialsexpectheartsurgeonlarrybucshontotopaneight-candidateprimaryfortheevansville-basedseatellsworthisgivingup.Thedemocraticnomineewillbestaterep.Trentvanhaaften.9thdistrictthequestionforgopvotersinthiscompetitivesoutheasterndistrictiswhethertheywillgowithformerrep.Mikesodrelastheirnomineeforthefifthconsecutiveelectionoriftheyoptforafreshfacetoopposerep.Baronp.Hill(d).Sodrelsmostthreateningchallengerappearstobetoddyoung,alawyerwhohasbeencampaigningfortheseatformorethanayear.Northcarolinasenatethoughahalf-dozendemocratsarevyingforthenominationandtherighttotakeonsen.Richardm.Burr(r),theracehascomedowntowhetherstatesecretaryofstateelainemarshall(d)canhitthe40percentthresholdthatisrequiredtoavoidajunerunoff.Formerstatesen.Calcunninghamisfightingtomakethatrunoffhappen.Nationaldemocraticpartyofficialsrecruitedhimlastyearovermarshall.Cunninghamhashadalargermediapresenceinthetarheelstateandhasbeensteadilygainingonmarshallsincegoingontheairinearlyapril.Marshallsmediaprogramjustgotoffthegroundlastweekinlargepartduetoherweakerfundraising.Butmarshallsinstitutionalsupport,stemmingfromherfourtermsassecretaryofstate,mayseeherthrough.House8thdistrictahalf-dozenrepublicansarevyingforthechancetotakeonfreshmanrep.Larrykissell(d),andajune22runoffseemsinevitable.Millionairetimdannunzio,whohasspentabout$1millionofhisownmoney,seemslikelytohaveboughthimselfaplaceintherunoff.Butthepartyestablishmenthasmadeitclearthatitbelievestheoutspokenandcontroversialdannunzioisaweakgeneralelectioncandidate.Formersportsbroadcasterharoldjohnson,whohasloanedhiscampaignnearlyaquarter-milliondollars,willlikelyfacedannunziointhegoprunoff.Lookfortheestablishmenttomovetosupportjohnsonevenmorethen.10thdistrictrep.Patrickt.Mchenry(r)isfacingapairofwell-fundedchallengerswhohavebeenrunningvigorousanti-washingtoncampaignsagainstthethird-termcongressman:dentistandiredellcountycommissionerscottkeadle,wholoanedhiscampaignnearlyahalf-milliondollars,andentrepreneurvancepatterson,wholoanedhiscampaignaquarter-milliondollars.11thdistricthalfadozenrepublicansarecompetinginanotherprimarythatshouldgotoarunoffbeforethegopdetermineshowseriousachallengeitwillmountagainstsecond-termrep.Heathshuler(d).Jeffmiller,whofoundedanonprofitgrouptoflyworldwariiveteranstowashington,d.C.,Totourtheworldwariimemorialandothersites,seemslikelytomakethatrunoff.Millerwasrecruitedintotheracebynationalpartyofficials.Ophthalmologistdaneichenbaum,whohasputmorethan$100,000ofhisownmoneyintothecontest,andhendersonvillemayorgregnewman,whoenteredtheracewithperhapsthebestnameidentification,arethetwomostlikelycandidatestofacemillerintherunoff.Ohiosenatearobusttelevisionadvertisingcampaignandsupportfromthedemocraticestablishmenthavehelpedinstalllt.Govleefisherasthefavoriteoverohiosecretaryofstatejenniferbrunner.Thebadnewsforfisher:formerrep.Robportmanisunopposedintherepublicanprimaryandhasbeenstockpilingmoneyinacampaigntreasurythathadnearly$7millionmorethanfishersasofmid-april.House2nddistrictrep.Jeanschmidthashadashakyholdonherdependablyrepublicandistrictinandaroundcincinnati,butsheshouldbeatthreeprimaryopponentsandfacethewinnerofathree-candidatedemocraticprimaryinwhichpartyofficialsarebackingsuryayalamanchili,whoonceappearedontheapprentice.16thdistrictjimrenacci,abusinessmanandformersmall-townmayor,isthepreferredcandidateofthenationalrepublicancongressionalcommitteeinafour-candidateprimary.Mattmiller,aformercountycommissioner,iswagingathirdbidfortheseataftertakingmorethan40percentofthevoteineachofthepasttworepublicanprimaries,butgopofficialsthinkrenacciwillwinconvincinglyandthengiverep.Johnboccieri(d)acompetitivechallengeinnovember.18thdistrictstatesen.Bobgibbs,thenrccspreferredcandidatetoopposerep.Zackspace(d),hasbeentryingtobuildhisprofileinanexpansiveruraldistrictwherehesnotwell-known.Threeoftheothersevenrepublicansseekingtheseatalsorantwoyearsago. 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